As climate change accelerates, its impact touches every part of our lives, especially the food on our plates. This post reveals how climate change threatens not just essential staple foods but also luxury items many of us enjoy. The consequences are wide-reaching, affecting food prices, availability, and food security.
The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
Climate change is drastically altering growing conditions around the world. Rising temperatures, inconsistent and unusual rainfall patterns, and a surge in natural disasters have thrown farmers into a challenging new reality. These changes lead to reduced crop yields and inconsistent supply, making it hard for farmers to produce the food we need.
For instance, staple crops like rice, wheat, and maize are particularly sensitive to temperature changes and water supply. Research shows that a 1°C increase in temperature can lead to a 10% decline in yields for these crops during critical growth phases. This means more food shortages are likely as climate patterns shift.
Extreme weather events also pose a significant threat. For example, the World Meteorological Organization reported a 29% increase in the frequency of droughts worldwide from 1970 to 2019. Droughts limit water availability and decimate crops, while excessive rainfall can cause soil erosion and flooding. Both scenarios drastically reduce agricultural productivity.
Rising Food Prices for Staples
These agricultural challenges naturally lead to increased food prices. As staple foods become scarcer due to climate impacts, prices are set to rise sharply. For example, globally the price of wheat increased by 70% from 2020 to 2021 due to climate-related factors. In Australia, the most extreme crop failure events over the wheat belt are associated with persistent high-pressure weather systems, a well-known effect of climate change.
Asian countries that produce staple foods like rice maintain stockpiles and control exports as a matter of national interest. Just last week, the Japanese Government released 210,000 tonnes of rice, one-fifth of its stockpile, to tackle soaring prices. Price increases followed unusually hot weather and typhoons resulting in poor harvests and panic buying. A December survey by the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications found that a 5-kilogram bag of Koshihikari cost a nationwide average of ¥3,775. This was over ¥1,400 (37%) more expensive than in May of 2024, and the price commonly exceeded ¥4,000 in the country’s urban centres.
New Zealand imports most of its rice from Thailand, Australia, India and Vietnam. Rice prices are on the increase in supermarkets.
Luxury Foods at Risk - Chocolate
Last year, weeks of high temperatures in the West African countries that produce 70% of the world's chocolate supply hit harvests of cocoa, and stoked record prices. African farmers have struggled with heat, disease and unusual rainfall in recent years, all of which have contributed to falling production.
Failed harvests have helped drive a meteoric rise in cocoa prices since late 2023. New York cocoa prices were above $10,000 a tonne last Wednesday, below a peak of over $12,500 in mid-December 2024. New York prices have mostly been between $2,000 and $3,000 a tonne for decades. Climate change has caused a 333% - 625% increase in cocoa prices.
These increases are so high that luxury chocolate makers are having to increase prices. In January 2025 Swiss chocolate maker Lindt & Spruengli said it would raise prices again this year to offset rising cocoa costs. Chocolate prices in New Zealand have also been quietly going up.
Luxury Foods at Risk - Coffee
Many of us would not think of coffee as a luxury item - but as a necessity! Coffee production is also affected by climate change. The global price of arabica coffee has more than doubled over the past year, with 25% of that appearing since early 2025. For the first time, one pound (454g) of arabica costs more than $USD4 on commodity markets. This is a climate-caused cost increase of 100%+.
These coffee price increases are also largely driven by climate-change-influenced weather patterns that have disrupted agricultural production around the world. In coffee-growing regions across South and Central America, Southeast Asia and East Africa, average temperatures are rising and rainfall patterns are changing, lengthening and intensifying droughts in some places while boosting extreme flood events in others. Brazil has had its most severe drought in 70 years, causing water shortages and crop failures. In Vietnam, months-long drought was followed by severe flooding last year during Typhoon Yagi, which brought extreme rainfall. These two countries produce 56% of global coffee supplies.
Food Security and Global Trade
The effect of climate change on agriculture also carries implications for global food trade. Countries that traditionally export staple foods may struggle to meet international demand, driving up prices globally. This can create fierce competition for dwindling resources, threatening food security worldwide.
Wealthy nations may prioritize their food supplies, potentially side-lining lower-income countries. This dynamic highlights the need for urgent, collaborative action to address the impact of climate change on global food systems.
New Zealand is in a unique position as a very small country that produces a phenomenal amount of food for its small size. Climate change-induced drought and fiercer cyclones are impacting production, but there are a lack of accurate records of losses and damages to our food supply and export income already experienced as a result of climate change. It is estimated that Cyclone Gabrielle caused $1,7 billion in damages to the primary sector, but that is only one data point. Other reporting is out of date or doesn't include projections of possible food price increases or lost food export volumes.
Addressing the Challenges Ahead
The connection between climate change and reducing food supply is a pressing issue that demands attention. Rising prices and declining yields for both staple and luxury food items affect millions of people globally, and are already affecting New Zealanders adding to the cost-of-living crisis.
Climate-induced cost increases internationally for just the one staple and two luxury products reviewed in this article range from 37% to 625%. It would be an interesting exercise to:
Compute the losses from climate change damage to food crops in New Zealand so far, just this century;
Predict the New Zealand food crop losses and export income losses that might be expected to occur over the next 25 years of the 21st Century if climate change continues at its presently accelerating rate; and,
Predict food price increases to be expected in New Zealand over the next 25 years as a result of dangerous climate change.
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